Market Data
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About 10-Year Breakeven Inflation
The 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate shows the market's expectation of average annual inflation over the next decade. Derived from the spread between nominal and TIPS yields, it's the purest market-based inflation forecast.
- Calculated as: 10Y nominal yield minus 10Y TIPS yield
- Rising breakevens are bullish for gold — inflation hedge demand increases
- When breakevens exceed the Fed's 2% target, gold typically outperforms
- Gold's correlation with inflation expectations is strongest during macro stress
- TIPS stands for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities